Quiet weather in New England while a massive storm takes shape to our south

Posted by Danielle Niles February 4, 2010 at 11:32 am

Quiet weather will be the rule across New England today as a large area of high pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley. Clockwise flow around this high means a northwest wind for all of us across the six state region, which will gust at times over 30 mph this afternoon- adding a chill to the air. It will feel like it’s in the single digits in the North Country to the lower 20s in far southern New England despite the bright sunshine, so bundle up! Seasonably cool and dry conditions will hold through tomorrow as the high pressure dome crests overhead. Meanwhile, a massive storm currently taking shape down in Texas is tapping copious amounts of Gulf moisture and will gather strength this afternoon.

The low will track northeastward tonight and tomorrow, bringing flooding rain and heavy thunderstorms to the Gulf Coast States. As the south begins to dry out, attention will then turn to the Mid-Atlantic on Friday as the storm redevelops near the North Carolina coast. Snow will break out in earnest across the Mid-Atlantic during the day, reaching NYC late in the evening. Over a foot of snow is likely in the major cities from DC through Philadelphia, with some spots picking up close to 2’ by Saturday morning.

Normally this type of setup is classic for a big storm in New England: low moving out of the Gulf to near North Carolina with a big arctic high to the north. This time around, however, the high is a bit too strong and will act as a block, preventing the storm from tracking up the coast. Instead, the low will be shunted eastward and out to sea, well south of Nantucket.

So what does that mean for us? Well at this point it looks like the best chance accumulating snow will be along the south coast of New England from southern CT through the Cape and Islands. There is still a chance that the storm will trend a bit further north, but the worst case scenario would probably bring snow no further north than the Mass Pike. Regardless of the exact track, there is bound to be an intense north-south cutoff in the snowfall totals, very similar to the storm which hit on December 19-20th. It would not be surprising to see a 1”/mile gradient, probably somewhere in the NYC region.

Finally, expect winds to pick up out of the northeast on Saturday as the storm makes its closest pass- a few gusts over 40 mph are likely, especially over the Cape and Islands. Of course, we will be fine-tuning the details as the latest guidance comes in, and will keep you posted on any forecast changes.

Have a great day!