Indian Summer in the Northeast..with the Tropics Still Alive!

Posted by Joe Joyce November 7, 2009 at 9:30 am

An early November warming trend is underway! Wonderful late season warmth for the next few days averagin 10 to 15 degrees above normal. A midweek cold front will return temps to more typical November temperatures. Meanwhile, Category 1 Hurricane Ida is entering the Gulf! Full Forecast Discussion Inside.

We are eyeing much warmer air currently in place in the Mississippi & Ohio River Valleys. High pressure south of New England will provide plenty of sunshine for the weekend through the start of next week. As this high pulls away it is starting to direct some of this unseasonal warmth into the northeast for a few days, giving us temperatures averaging well above normal for November with the feel of Indian Summer! Yes, one of the last gasps of warmth before the real cold starts to take hold. It is considered to be a significant warm up which occurs after a widespread killing frost or freeze. I am pretty certain we will meet that criteria. The peak of the warmth will be here Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 60’s nearing 70.

By Tuesday Night into early Wednesday morning we will be tracking a cold front which will try to restore order and balance to our atmosphere. This front will come with some showers by Tuesday night which may mix with snow showers in the NW higher terrain. Tropical Storm Ida is gaining strength in the Carribean as it will pass by the tip of the Yukatan peninsula, and head into the Gulf of Mexico by Tonight- Monday. Ida will have another 24 hours to gain strength to possibly a Category 2 before it will weaken before making landfall as a weaker but still very potent storm sometime around later Tuesday-Wednesday. Where and when this will make landfall still remains a bit unclear, but chances are it’s impact will be somewhere from Louisiana to the Panhandle of Florida. The moisture from this storm will be breaking off and may become steered up the east coast and become a strengthening low off the Atlantic seaboard Wednesday. Some of the moisture and energy from Ida may get entrained into the cold front which will be sweeping through Tuesday Night/Wednesday. Lucky for us, this front will act as a broom and sweep away and keep most of the heaviest rain south of New England. Expect a cool raw day Wednesday with showers and a cool Northeast wind which will be gusting upt to 30+mph. There is still uncertainty to the midweek forecast so stay tuned to further developments. Drier air to follow for the end of the week, thanks to building high pressure behind the front with moderating temps back into the 50’s

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