Midweek storm to bring near Blizzard conditions to New York & New England

Posted by Joe Joyce February 6, 2010 at 8:50 am

High Pressure will keep us dry and seasonably cool to start the week, but we will need to put the historic Mid-Atlantic weekend storm quickly behind us. That is because the next storm to come down the pike will have more of an impact for our region in the form of an accumulating plowable snowfall and strong winds at the coast for the midweek! It looks like this storm could be another Blizzard! This will make it the 4th Blizzard this year for the east coast. Include the three Blizzards which have occurred in the Midwest/Plains…that makes 7 Blizzards this winter!! The Year of the Blizzard! The atmosphere is obviously loaded with energy thanks impart to the El Nino in the Pacific and Rising High Pressures in the North Atlantic…creating a jetstream which is primed and loaded for storms! Rising pressure in Greenland has helped to create blocking in the atmosphere creating a storm track which has been pushing storms south of New England and we have missed out on several storms. The question for this midweek storm is does this pattern continue with another major storm staying south…or does this pattern start to shift just enough that we finally get into the action??? The chances of a good thump of snow are becoming more likely. More On the Upcoming Midweek Storm Inside!

The combination of Pacific energy, along with cold air dive bombing out of Canada, while tapping into Gulf of Mexico moisture will allow a storm to gain strength as it moves towards the Northeast. One low will track up through the Great Lakes, but another low will develop off the east coast and this storm should barrel towards or just south of New England as a deepening much stronger storm.

At this point there are a variety of solutions this storm could take…but there has been an overall trending north…so the miss option at this point seems less likely. It now appears that this storm will be an all out Blizzard…or maybe something a little less. It is hard to say with any real confidence what exactly will happen this far out.

So I will tell you what I know. The dynamics are in place for rapid intensification off the New England Coastline. This storm should explode and bomb south of New England so this gives me some hope that we get snow out of this one! The track of the storm will be critical to who gets what. Unfortunately for storm weary residents in the Mid-Atlantic…more heavy snow is on the way. This time Cities from Philly to New York City to Boston will be more directly affected, with Washington D.C possibly dealing with mix of snow & sleet and accumulations of around 3-6″. Another 8-12″ towards Philly with 12-18″ near New York City. It appears Southern New England will see the heaviest snow fall with at least 6-12+” . It will be a fluffy snow as colder air gets drawn into the deepening low…which will allow for snow ratios of 20:1…allowing snow to really pile up in areas. Very strong winds at the coast where the wind could gust 40-60mph in the peak of the storm which will occur later Wednesday in southeast MA.

Though I do not think it will be creating 2-3 foot snowfall amounts…there is the potential for 12+” maximums of snow where this storm eventually tracks. I think Northeast PA, Northern NJ, NYC and CT and Eastern & Southeast MA currently have the best chance of getting into the Bulls Eye of heavier snow and possible Blizzard conditions Wednesday. This is all speculation at this point. I am sure this will be changing…so all we can do is stay tuned and aware. We will let you know our thinking as we get closer.

So while some of you may be celebrating missing this weekend storm, don’t get to excited…because in just a few days…many of us could be digging out from our own winter storm which could really get it’s act together in the coming days.

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