Quiet Times…But Looking for More Snow
Posted by Joe Joyce February 14, 2009 at 8:16 pm
Sunny Holiday Weekend
Our ocean storm continues to head northeastward towards Greenland. This, along with a huge high out of Canada, is the reason our winds have been so active. The low is starting to pull away so winds are diminishing. Pressure is on the rise which means lots of sunshine the next few days. There is a lobe of low level cloudiness breaking off the ocean low which is over eastern Maine today which could last into tomorrow, otherwise a NW wind will persist through Tuesday which will keep us dry with seasonably cool temperatures with plenty of February Sunshine.
Our mornings will start off crisp and cool in the teens with highs moderating into the 30’s for the next several days. A strong Pacific storm is pushing into California today. This will provide upto 1-2 feet of snow for the Sierras and possibly the Rockies as this storm works eastward. We will be watching the track of this low as it crosses the nation. It will likely provide severe weather for some midwestern states. The arrival of this storm will be Wednesday Night. This will likely come with an initial burst of snow where a several inches could accumulate before warmer air tries to move in with SE winds. The track is too early to determine so any forecast right now is pure speculation. But it appears Northern New England will be just cold enough a many inches of snow before any mixing. A farther south track into the Mid-Atlantic would mean a colder solution and more snow for all of us. As of right now, it looks like the low will track a bit west or right over southern New England which would allow for warmer air to penetrate southern new england and allow more of a snow mix to rain scenario along and south of the Pike. We will likely watch the snow/rain line try to push north of Boston into Northern New England early Thursday Morning. It may be tough to do though. Our Model runs are trending back towards a colder solution! So there still is a potential for a plowable snowfall in New England highly dependant on the track!!
Next, Another piece of energy will fly around the base of a trough in place along the east coast and possibly give us our next chance of snow by next weekend for Saturday Night & Sunday…thhis could become even more impressive for snowfall South… with colder air to follow behind that. Again…all of this is pure speculation at this point. So stay tuned!
A colder and active pattern remains in place likely for the end of the month…with a few chances at snowfalls. February has provided a nice break to winter with quieter less severe weather, less snow..only 5″ in Boston for the month, and even a thaw! A month which can be the straw which breaks the camel’s back has provided a much needed rest for most of us. But we still have half the month to go! Get your popcorn ready! That said…there are signs that the worst of the winter my already be behind us. Encouraging news.
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It’s been four years since our latitude received a significant storm in terms of very low central pressure. That was Jan 22 2005. It’s the gases!
Tom, if I understand your comment correctly, you are saying that climate change (caused by GHG’s) is pushing these storms farther North/West. Did I get that right?
I’ll say this: it seems the last few years, the SE ridge remains pretty strong, even in the Winter months. I think this may be the reason that storms – which, if I understand correctly, like to ride along the dividing line between warm & cold air masses – seem to be consistently tracking furhter N/W than the models show. Could human-induced climate change be strengthening the SE ridge? Inquiring minds want to know!
Scott,
Thnx for your response and your curiosity. As I understand it, the totality of the gases which is the human generated greenhouse is still small but there’s that nagging notion called the butterfly effect. A slight additive gaseous warming MIGHT have a significant impact such as the performance of the weather models. However, this is mostly conjecture. I should point out that the blizzard of 2005 was not the last storm of very low pressure near New England. I know there was a very deep low in early Dec 2007 – hurricane force winds over Capre Cod. If I’m not mistaken, the ENSO is very important to the strength of mid-latitude cyclones. La Ninas tend to produce weaker cyclones while El Ninos stronger. What has me really intrigued is the weather this winter. The record or near high temps surrounding the January cold that set record lows. I can’t help but think that the GHGs played a role. The cold associated with a lengthy period of very low solar flux seemed to under-perform. My postulation is that the kinetic energy from the enhanced greenhouse in connection with insolation at the mid and lower latitudes could be moderating US winters – notably this one with its very low solar activity. As you know, the Arctic and Canada were rather cold this winter; a departure from recent winters. Ghgs are largely ineffectual there because the albedo is high -i.e insolation is low. All of this argues that the sun is more important to climate change…at least for now.
I
I should proof-read my comments. Just to repeat, the proximity of record high temps and record low temps has me intrigued. The january cold bookended by the mild air of Dec and Feb. If there is a ghg link perhaps there could be a spring blizzard this year. As the southern areas bloom, co2 will be sucked out of the atmosphere allowing fror greater meridional flow and a stronger storm – Canada will of course still be able to supply ample cold.
I can’t wait for the great inaudible sucking sound that has the potential to produce a spring blizzard. Don’t hold me to that because La Nina has the power to preclude.