Weekend Weather Discussion…Sunday Update!

Posted by Joe Joyce May 30, 2009 at 7:49 am

Another day of warming west winds to allow temps to climb into the 70’s. A cold front could spark a few scattered showers or a T’storm today. As the front pushes offshore, look for clearing skies tonight and cooler temperatures…even frost in the Northwest valleys!

Sunday will feature some morning sunshine and increasing cloudiness as the day progresses. These clouds are ahead of our next approaching cold front. This front will come with a bit more energy, as a vigorous short wave fueled with lots of cold air aloft, will dig into New England and spark a few more scattered showers and storms in the late morning & afternoon hours…The best chance of a thunderstorm will be in the North…where there is a chance of a locally strong storm. Otherwise, it is just too dry for any real storms to develop. Thunderstorms need low level moisture to develop. usually dewpoints in the 50’s and 60’s will be enough to get the storms going. Dewpoints this morning are bone dry in the lwr to mid 40’s. This dry air will eat away at the invading showers. Winds will pick up with the passage of this front. Winds could gust up to 30 mph. Cooler air is moving in aloft, and this will provide just enough instability to allow for building clouds and the potential of a stronger storm Nouth. I am expecting only a passing shower in the south today.

Cooler air will be on the move Sunday Night behind the front. It could briefly snow in the northern Mtns tonight from Mt Manfield to Mt Washington to Sugarloaf before skies clear. Temps will drop into the 30’s and 40’s overnight with clear skies. Frost and Freeze warnings are issues for Northwest valleys which come close to freezing overnight. Potted plants should be covered or brought inside to protect them.

After a cool start to the work week, Monday will be sunny and dry with seasonably cool temperatures. Clouds will be on the increase Tuesday ahead of our next disturbance which will be a boundary separating cooler air pushing south from Canada and warmer air pushing North from the South. This will form a few waves of rain which could affect the middle part of the week. The timing of the rain remains a bit uncertain at this point. There is a quesion if the dry air from Canada helps to push the rain mostly south of us, or if the boundary becomes placed right over us….and keeps it raining on and off from Wednesday into Thursday…Again! At this point it looks like we should start to dry out on Thursday, with temperatures seasonably cool.

Joe’s Note: Climatological Summer begins tomorrow…the beginning of the three warmest months of the year. Also the start of the 2009 Hurricane season gets under way. We have already had one little tropical depression pass south of us! Hurricane Forecasting Expert Dr. William Gray from Colorado State University is predicting an average year for activity. The Atlantic basin is forecast to produce 12 named storms, down from the December forecast of 14 named storms. Of the 12 storms predicted, only 6 are forecast to become hurricanes. Of those hurricanes, only 2 are expected to become intense. Of course, this is just an early estimate…but from my experience, Dr William Gray is usually somewhere around the mark. A developing weak el Nino may help play a role in the tropical suppression this year.

Enjoy the weekend!