Four Day Nor’Easter Forecast for October 16-19, 2009

Posted by Tim Kelley October 14, 2009 at 8:56 pm

Low pressure that dropped the first few inches of snow at our ski areas yesterday, Tuesday October 13, 2009, is tonight a major storm near Newfoundland. wind at Saint John’s is gusting to 65 mph. That low has deepened to 966 millibars, or 28.5 inches. Backside wind is pushing the coldest air since last winter to our six state region. A Frost and Freeze Advisory is in effect all the way to south coast. This is likely the final frost advisory of the fall, as the growing season will have ended for most of us by morning. This will be the fifth night in a row of freezing temperatures in New England. Cold enough air that we have the first Ski Resort of the Season to open here in the east.

Sunday River started the lifts on Upper Lock Mountain today, Wednesday October 14, 2009. This photo was sent our way by Darcy Liberty of SundayRiver.com. The plan is to run the lifts through Sunday with tickets selling for $25.

Now we are turning our eyes to a series of storms coming in from the Pacific, including energy entrained from Typhoon Melor that hit Japan last week. During Tuesday the State of California received 5″-15″ of rainfall with winds to 80 mph. Tonight that storm is breaking into pieces with low pressure centers strung out from Florida to British Columbia. Feeding these storms is hot humid air in Texas and cold air covering all of Canada. The powerhouse low over the Canadian Maritime’s creates blocking, keeping a feed of Canadian Cold air flowing into New England. The state of the North Atlantic Oscillation is currently negative, meaning storms are likely passing to our south into next week. This means we are on the cold side of the storms. Negative NAO also means we can see storms miss to the south. A very fast flow aloft is currently running east to west (or Zonal) across the United States. As the energy becomes more enhanced here in the east we will see an upper level trough dig along the Appalachian Mountains. As the trough digs, storms track closer and closer to New England. The gradient between the stalled high pressure in southeast Canada, and the deepening lows passing south of Nantucket mean we get prolonged northeast wind form Thursday into Monday. Combine the new moon high tides and this flow.. we get beach erosion and minor coast flooding at times of high tide. Tides are high late morning to early afternoon Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.. as well as midnight each of these days. Timing of each low is near impossible.. so let us prepare for a four day Nor’easter.. Friday to Monday. Wind will fluctuate from Gale Force up and down. Rain is likely in southern and eastern New England off and on starting Friday. Air is cold enough Friday and Saturday for snow levels as low as 1000′ if the precipitation gets this far inland. It is possible snowfall amounts may exceed 3″ in our southern hills, that could be enough for some tree damage on the fully colorful foliated forest. Air is surely cold enough for snow in our Mountains of the Berkshires and Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, but we may not get the precipitation to fall that far inland. Either way, we are now into ski season, the earliest I can remember in years.
Beachcombing is Awesome too..

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT…SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2009

..TIME… …EVENT… …CITY LOCATION… …LAT.LON…
..DATE… ….MAG…. ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
..REMARKS..

0953 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG FAIRHAVEN 41.65N 70.82W
10/18/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON GREEN STREET.

1000 AM STORM SURGE WELLFLEET 41.93N 70.03W
10/18/2009 E0.00 FT BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

WATER COMPLETELY COVERING NEWCOMB HOLLOW BEACH AND
FLOODING THE WALKWAY.

1053 AM STORM SURGE NANTUCKET 41.27N 70.10W
10/18/2009 E0.00 FT NANTUCKET MA AMATEUR RADIO

WASHINGTON STREET FLOODED WITH 6 INCHES OF WATER. JETTY
BEACH PARKING LOT FLOODED.

1057 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG WAREHAM 41.75N 70.72W
10/18/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

A FEW BOATS BROKE LOOSE OFF THEIR MOORINGS ON BUTTERMILK
BAY.

1100 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MARSHFIELD 42.09N 70.71W
10/18/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON WIRES TAKING OUT UTILITY POLE AND BLOCKING
ROAD.

1107 AM STORM SURGE EDGARTOWN 41.38N 70.53W
10/18/2009 E0.00 FT NANTUCKET MA AMATEUR RADIO

OAK BLUFFS SHORE ROAD HAD WATER OVER THE SEA WALL
FLOODING THE ROAD WITH DEBRIS AND HIGH HAVEN SECTION ALSO
HAD WATER OVER THE SEA WALL WITH DEBRIS ON THE ROAD.

1107 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG LAKEVILLE 41.85N 70.95W
10/18/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

POWER LINES DOWN.

1107 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CARVER 41.88N 70.77W
10/18/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

LARGE BRANCH DOWN ON WIRE.

1109 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SEEKONK 41.82N 71.33W
10/18/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

LARGE TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROAD.

1131 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG NEW BEDFORD 41.66N 70.94W
10/18/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

LARGE BRANCH DOWN ON WOOD STREET.

1139 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG WEYMOUTH 42.21N 70.95W
10/18/2009 NORFOLK MA AMATEUR RADIO

LARGE BRANCH DOWN ACROSS ROAD.

1153 AM STORM SURGE SCITUATE 42.19N 70.73W
10/18/2009 E0.00 FT PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

PARKING LOT AT SCITUATE HARBOR FLOODED WITH 6 INCHES TO 1
FOOT OF WATER.

1201 PM STORM SURGE SCITUATE 42.19N 70.73W
10/18/2009 E0.00 FT PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

LIGHTHOUSE ROAD FLOODED WITH 6 INCHES OF WATER AND
SPLASHOVER FROM THE SEA WALL BLOCKING ACCESS TO
LIGHTHOUSE POINT. MEDIUM SIZED ROCKS FROM THE SEA IN
PARKING LOT.

1202 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG YARMOUTH 41.71N 70.23W
10/18/2009 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREES DOWN ON WIRES.

1207 PM STORM SURGE QUINCY 42.26N 71.01W
10/18/2009 E0.00 FT NORFOLK MA AMATEUR RADIO

RHODA STREET FLOODED WITH UP TO 12 INCHES OF WATER AND
IMPASSABLE.

1208 PM STORM SURGE CHATHAM 41.68N 69.96W
10/18/2009 E0.00 FT BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

NORTH CHATHAM TOWN LANDING HAS SEVERAL SHORE ROADS WITH
MINOR STREET FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.

1210 PM STORM SURGE WEYMOUTH 42.21N 70.95W
10/18/2009 E0.00 FT NORFOLK MA AMATEUR RADIO

SEA STREET FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.

1213 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG LYNN 42.47N 70.96W
10/18/2009 ESSEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN OFF OF A HOUSE.

1215 PM STORM SURGE WINTHROP 42.38N 70.98W
10/18/2009 E0.00 FT SUFFOLK MA AMATEUR RADIO

WINTHROP PARKWAY FLOODED OUT WITH DEBRIS IN THE ROAD AND
SECONDARY ROAD CLOSED DUE TO DEBRIS IN THE ROAD.

1224 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG FALL RIVER 41.71N 71.11W
10/18/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

LARGE BRANCHES DOWN BLOCKING BULLOCK STREET.

1225 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG MARSHFIELD 42.09N 70.71W
10/18/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON FOSTER STREET.

1230 PM STORM SURGE SALEM 42.53N 70.87W
10/18/2009 E0.00 FT ESSEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

COMMERCIAL STREET FLOODED WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER AND
NORTH STREET IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOODING WITH A CAR STUCK
IN FLOOD WATERS.

1231 PM STORM SURGE PLYMOUTH 41.96N 70.68W
10/18/2009 E0.00 FT PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

ROUTE 3A NEAR BURTS RESTAURANT HAS WATER OVER THE SEA
WALL FLOODING THE PARKING LOT.

1233 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG PLYMOUTH 41.96N 70.68W
10/18/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

LARGE TREE DOWN BLOCKING SANDWICH STREET.

1235 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG NEW BEDFORD 41.66N 70.94W
10/18/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON A CAR.

1239 PM STORM SURGE NANTUCKET 41.27N 70.10W
10/18/2009 E0.00 FT NANTUCKET MA AMATEUR RADIO

LAFAYETTE STREET FLOODED WITH 6 INCHES OF WATER.
CHILDRENS BEACH PARKING LOT FLOODED. EASTER STREET NEAR
HOTEL ON BRANT POINT HAS A PARKING LOT AND SEVERAL ROADS
FLOODED OUT. JETTIS BEACH FLOODED WITH PARKING LOT HALF
FLOODED. WASHINGTON STREET FLOODED WITH 6 INCHES OF
WATER.

1247 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG NEW BEDFORD 41.66N 70.94W
10/18/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN BLOCKING A ROAD.

0100 PM STORM SURGE SCITUATE 42.19N 70.73W
10/18/2009 E0.00 FT PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

LIGHTHOUSE POINT ROAD REMAINS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.
SEVERAL CARS TURNED AROUND DUE TO FLOODED ROAD.
SPLASHOVER OVER SEAWALL HITTING THE ROOFS OF HOMES.

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG CARVER 41.88N 70.77W
10/18/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

LARGE TREE DOWN BLOCKING MONTELLO STREET.

0102 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG HINGHAM 42.24N 70.89W
10/18/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

LARGE BRANCH DOWN ON MARY KNOLLS DRIVE.

0102 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG PLYMOUTH 41.96N 70.68W
10/18/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 3A.

0115 PM HIGH SUST WINDS NANTUCKET 41.27N 70.10W
10/18/2009 M40.00 MPH NANTUCKET MA ASOS

0120 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BARNSTABLE 41.70N 70.30W
10/18/2009 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN BLOCKING A ROAD.

0125 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG NANTUCKET 41.27N 70.10W
10/18/2009 NANTUCKET MA AMATEUR RADIO

12 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN BLOCKING ATLANTIC AVENUE.

0138 PM STORM SURGE WINTHROP 42.38N 70.98W
10/18/2009 E0.00 FT SUFFOLK MA AMATEUR RADIO

WINTHROP SHORE DRIVE AT CHARLES STREET NORTHBOUND IS
FLOODED UP TO THE CAR BUMPERS. WINTHROP SHORE DRIVE SOUTH
OF LEVERETT AVENUE IS FLOODED OUT WITH DEBRIS IN THE
ROAD.

0141 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BARNSTABLE 41.70N 70.30W
10/18/2009 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

BOAT BROKEN OFF FROM MOORING ON BARNSTABLE HARBOR.

0154 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NANTUCKET 41.27N 70.10W
10/18/2009 M60.00 MPH NANTUCKET MA AMATEUR RADIO

CISCO BEACH WIND GUST HIT SEVERAL TIMES BETWEEN 140 PM
AND 154 PM.

0202 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG PLYMOUTH 41.96N 70.68W
10/18/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON A CAR ON ROCKY HILL ROAD. NO INJURIES.

0310 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG MARSHFIELD 42.09N 70.71W
10/18/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON FORREST STREET.

0321 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BOURNE 41.73N 70.61W
10/18/2009 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON OLD PLYMOUTH ROAD IN SAGAMORE BEACH.

0426 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WEST TISBURY 41.38N 70.68W
10/18/2009 DUKES MA AMATEUR RADIO

LIMBS DOWN ON WIRES WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

0428 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG PLYMOUTH 41.96N 70.68W
10/18/2009 PLYMOUTH MA TRAINED SPOTTER

10 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN IN DOWNTOWN PLYMOUTH.

0430 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG NEW BEDFORD 41.66N 70.94W
10/18/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN IN NORTH END OF THE CITY.

0444 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SCITUATE 42.19N 70.73W
10/18/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON WIRES ON JUSTICE CUSHING HIGHWAY.

0446 PM HIGH SUST WINDS NANTUCKET 41.27N 70.10W
10/18/2009 M41.00 MPH NANTUCKET MA ASOS

0450 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BOURNE 41.73N 70.61W
10/18/2009 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON OAK BRIDGE ROAD.

0459 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WAREHAM 41.75N 70.72W
10/18/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON WIRES ON ELLIS AVENUE IN ONSET.

0507 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG NEEDHAM 42.28N 71.24W
10/18/2009 NORFOLK MA AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON GALEN ROAD.

0535 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WESTWOOD 42.22N 71.22W
10/18/2009 NORFOLK MA AMATEUR RADIO

LARGE BRANCH DOWN ON WIRES ON WILLOW STREET.

0545 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NANTUCKET 41.27N 70.10W
10/18/2009 M58.00 MPH NANTUCKET MA AMATEUR RADIO

CISCO BEACH

0551 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG PLYMOUTH 41.96N 70.68W
10/18/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREES DOWN WITH SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES

0848 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG PLYMOUTH 41.96N 70.68W
10/18/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN BLOCKING BARTLETT AVENUE

0910 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG MASHPEE 41.65N 70.48W
10/18/2009 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON GREAT NECK ROAD

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
557 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2009

…RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT WORCESTER MA…

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 1 INCH WAS SET AT WORCESTER MA YESTERDAY. THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF TRACE SET IN 1972.

IT IS ALSO THE SECOND RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IN THE PAST 3 DAYS.

FOR WORCESTER…THIS SO FAR…IS THE FOURTH SNOWIEST OCTOBER IN THE
PERIOD OF RECORD DATING BACK TO 1892. AS OF THIS MORNING…2.4
INCHES HAD ACCUMULATED THIS MONTH.

THE SNOWIEST OCTOBER WAS IN 1979 WHEN 7.5 INCHES ACCUMULATED .. ALL
IN ONE DAY ..THE 10TH

From Blue Hill Observatory..
A cold rain turned to wet snow on Sunday, October 18th, which amounted to 3.0 inches before ending in the evening. This ties for the third highest snowfall in October with three other dates. Greater snowfalls in October include 6.8 inches on 10/10/1979 and 4.2 inches on 10/13/1934. The last snowfall in October brought 1.5 inches on 10/29/2005.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1250 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2009

SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
(INCHES) MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

…TOLLAND COUNTY…
STAFFORDVILLE 1.0 700 AM 10/19 COCORAHS
STAFFORDVILLE 1.0 700 AM 10/19 NWS COOP
TOLLAND 0.8 900 PM 10/18 SPOTTER

…WINDHAM COUNTY…
ASHFORD 0.5 420 PM 10/18 SKYWARN

MASSACHUSETTS

…BARNSTABLE COUNTY…
EASTHAM T 202 PM 10/18 SKYWARN

…BRISTOL COUNTY…
NORTON 0.4 700 AM 10/19 NWS COOP
TAUNTON 0.4 800 PM 10/18 NWS OFFICE
DIGHTON T 700 AM 10/19 NWS EMPLOYEE

…ESSEX COUNTY…
TOPSFIELD 1.5 830 PM 10/18 SPOTTER
PEABODY 0.6 920 PM 10/18 SPOTTER
MARBLEHEAD 0.2 1110 AM 10/19 COCORAHS
SALISBURY T 700 AM 10/19 COCORAHS

…FRANKLIN COUNTY…
ASHFIELD T 700 AM 10/19 NWS COOP

…HAMPSHIRE COUNTY…
WORTHINGTON T 700 AM 10/19 NWS COOP

…MIDDLESEX COUNTY…
ARLINGTON 2.0 900 PM 10/18 SPOTTER
BEDFORD 1.0 655 PM 10/18 HANSCOM AFB REGION
CARLISLE 1.0 818 PM 10/18 SPOTTER
HOPKINTON 0.5 820 PM 10/18 SPOTTER
CONCORD 0.3 654 PM 10/18 SPOTTER
NATICK 0.2 700 AM 10/19 NWS COOP
MAYNARD T 700 AM 10/19 NWS COOP

…NORFOLK COUNTY…
WALPOLE 1.4 700 AM 10/19 NWS COOP
NORWOOD 0.9 700 AM 10/19 NWS EMPLOYEE
DOVER 0.8 840 PM 10/18 SPOTTER

…PLYMOUTH COUNTY…
BRIDGEWATER 0.5 710 PM 10/18 SPOTTER

…SUFFOLK COUNTY…
EAST BOSTON 0.1 1051 PM 10/18 LOGAN AIRPORT

…WORCESTER COUNTY…
PRINCETON 5.0 445 PM 10/18 ELEVATION 1425 FEET
WEST WARREN 2.0 1113 AM 10/19 SPOTTER
HUBBARDSTON 1.5 510 PM 10/18 SPOTTER
WORCESTER 1.5 505 PM 10/18 ELEVATION 1000 FEET
ASHBURNHAM 1.2 700 AM 10/19 NWS COOP
EAST BRIMFIELD DAM 1.2 700 AM 10/19 NWS COOP
NEW BRAINTREE 1.0 700 PM 10/18 ELEVATION 1000 FEET
WORCESTER 1.0 1153 PM 10/18 AIRPORT
WORCESTER 1.0 700 AM 10/19 COCORAHS
WESTBOROUGH 0.3 700 AM 10/19 COCORAHS
MILFORD 0.2 700 AM 10/19 COCORAHS

NEW HAMPSHIRE

…CHESHIRE COUNTY…
MARLOW T 700 AM 10/19 NWS COOP

…HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY…
PELHAM 2.4 400 PM 10/18 ELEVATION 570 FEET
GREENVILLE 2.0 700 AM 10/19 NWS COOP
MASON 2.0 900 AM 10/19 PUBLIC
FRANCESTOWN 1.0 700 AM 10/19 NWS COOP
GOFFSTOWN 0.5 734 PM 10/18 ELEVATION 1500 FEET
HUDSON 0.2 700 AM 10/19 NWS COOP

RHODE ISLAND

…PROVIDENCE COUNTY…
WOONSOCKET 0.5 700 AM 10/19 COCORAHS

***********************PEAK WIND GUST***********************

LOCATION PEAK WIND TIME/DATE COMMENTS
GUST OF
(MPH) MEASUREMENT

MASSACHUSETTS

…BARNSTABLE COUNTY…
BARNSTABLE 54 548 PM 10/18 MARSTONS MILLS
EASTHAM 51 202 PM 10/18 SKYWARN
YARMOUTH 48 1246 PM 10/18
FALMOUTH 47 1255 PM 10/18 ASOS
HYANNIS 47 325 PM 10/18 ASOS
PROVINCETOWN 47 255 PM 10/18 AWOS
BARNSTABLE 46 1229 PM 10/18 SKYWARN

…DUKES COUNTY…
CUTTYHUNK ISLAND 50 129 PM 10/18 SKYWARN
VINEYARD HAVEN 48 1232 PM 10/18 ASOS

…NANTUCKET COUNTY…
NANTUCKET 54 352 PM 10/18 ASOS

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
232 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2009

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
(INCHES) MEASUREMENT

MAINE

…HANCOCK COUNTY…
AURORA 2.5 1000 AM 10/19 REPORTED BY DOT45
BLUE HILL 2.0 1232 PM 10/19 SNOW COVERED ROADS
DEDHAM 1.0 1000 AM 10/19 REPORTED BY PD043
ELLSWORTH 0.1 1000 AM 10/19 MIXED WITH RAIN
ELLSWORTH (EAST 0.1 1200 AM 10/19 RAIN SNOW MIX
LAMOINE 0.1 1000 AM 10/19 MIXED WITH RAIN

…PENOBSCOT COUNTY…
EDDINGTON 1.0 231 PM 10/19 REPORTED BY MDOT
ETNA 1.0 230 PM 10/19 REPORTED BY MDOT
HAMPDEN 0.5 1000 AM 10/19 REPORTED BY PD010
HOLDEN 0.5 1000 AM 10/19 REPORTED BY DOT31
BANGOR T 1000 AM 10/19 REPORTED BY PD010

…PISCATAQUIS COUNTY…
EAST SANGERVILLE T 700 AM 10/19 MIXED WITH RAIN

…WASHINGTON COUNTY…
TOPSFIELD 1.7 700 AM 10/19