Out Forecasted by My Instruments- November 2, 2009

Posted by Tim Kelley November 2, 2009 at 8:37 pm

Yes, my Davis Vantage Pro2 (VP2), Weather Instrument Display has a button labeled ‘Forecast’. Clouds were stuck in southern New England Sunday November 1, 2009, but the computer forecast model gave a Monday forecast of dry in Southern New England. So when I pressed the forecast button on DP2, with a readout of “Increasing clouds, precipitation possible with 24 hours” I was intrigued. On weekends I try to only spend an hour here and there watching the weather map. This weekend none of the seven day forecasts had any rain or snow across the board.. that seemed unlikely, but when and where would precipitation come from? Last week it seemed maybe this Wednesday. But the models said no, as a front in the Northern Stream on Tuesday would lag behind good moisture in the Southern Stream. Then last night (Sunday) the wind started puffing up from the Northeast, gusting to 30 mph after midnight.

This took me by surprise.. then sure enough, rain arrived within 24 hours of my VP2 forecast. This is a photo of the Little Nor’Easter that took me by Surprise Monday November 2, 2009. I was out forecasted by my Weather Instruments. Reminds me of the Model Forecast for Warming this Decade (has not really worked out). At least those long range forecasts have more leeway, as the weather is harder to predict for longer time periods, than shorter time.
So what’s next, how much snow on Thursday?

The old saying.. Red Sky at Night.. did not work out well. Sunday snset was beautiful, Monday was wet and windy.

We have new Arctic Cold arriving in Eastern Canada this week. The difference this time, unlike the huge storm last month, the Southern Stream looks to be much more quiet and cut off from the Northern Stream, therefor we see more of a cold air sort of bleeding in behind a Tuesday Cold Front. We in New England are in the cold for Wednesday through Saturday Morning. The wild card appears to be Thursday. A short wave in the Northern Stream will drop into New England and briefly cut off, with an interaction of some Gulf Stream Moisture. This will result in bombogenesis east of Nantucket Thursday into Friday. The possibility is there for an accumulating snow in the Hills of New England during this time. If it can snow in Foxborough on October 18th, we can certainly get snow on November 5th. The air is much colder this time, so the snow has a better chance of being more widespread. We will be getting more serious on this as time approaches.
Even as cold and snow are possible this week, we look west to The Pacific Ocean, where a monster storm is forecast to come ashore in British Columbia at the same time we may be snowing later in the week. That Pacific Storm is forecast by some models to get into the 945 millibar range, a massive destructive storm to be sure (if it verifies). That storm will push southwesterly pacific origin air all the way across the lower 48 United States. This means that we have a dramatic warm up early next week. The next new cold will arrive after that storm gets to the Atlantic around November 12th.
This is the time ski areas really get serious about opening for good (Sunday River has maintained patchy snow enough for Halloween Skiing).

So snow guns turn on this week, and snow in the mountains should be building up this month, especially after November 12.