Is First Storm 2010 A Blizzard?

Posted by Tim Kelley December 31, 2009 at 9:33 pm

Our Friday looks fairly quiet with mostly light snow (some rain at he shore). The snow picks up Friday Night, especially in Maine. The the storm way out at sea begins to intensify and back to the northwest, and eventually southwest. Some of the computer models deepen this storm to 962 millibars, that is stronger than Hurricane Bob in Rhode Island August 19, 1991 (Bob was 964 millibars). Though this extreme is not likely, it is within the realm of possibility..

Blizzard conditions are likely in Maine by Saturday afternoon. As for the rest of New England, we may see near blizzard conditions at the coast in New Hampshire and Massachusetts. The worst of this storm looks to be Saturday and Saturday Night. Here is the latest forecast for the track of this long duration storm. We are still forecasting a ‘Blizzard Loop’ as discussed in the Monday Post.
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Record Low Activity for 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Posted by Joe Joyce October 25, 2009 at 10:36 am

Looking at the graph above, Tropical activity across the globe is down, down, down. Though recently the far east has been seeing their share of tropical cyclones and even the west coast was struck by Hurricane Rick, who at one point was a category 5 storm with winds up to 180 mph before weakening! Some of the remnants of Rick blew through us yesterday! The Pacific in it’s cool mode, with a weak-moderate el nino..and even a quiet sun…all are having an impact on the energy heat balance and distribution around the globe. Read more

September 27th, 20th Anniversary of Hurricane Gloria

Posted by Joe Joyce September 27, 2009 at 6:42 pm

Hurricane Gloria - September 27, 1985.
WINDS: 85-mph (moving at 35-mph).
PRESSURE: 28.37 inches/961 mb.
STORM – SURGE: 4- 7 feet above Mean Tide.

Hurricane Gloria was one of the most intensely reported events of the 1980’s. Gloria hit New York and Connecticut as a moderate hurricane in September 1985. At the time of landfall on Long Island – Gloria had sustained winds of 85-mph, while rapidly moving forward at 35-mph. This combination of sustained winds and rapid forward motion – produced major hurricane conditions (gusts to 115-mph) across a narrow area of eastern Long Island, New York. Although Gloria was not a major hurricane when it struck Connecticut, it was significantly more damaging to Connecticut than Hurricane Belle (1976) and Hurricane Donna (1960).
Read More About Gloria Inside Read more

New England Forecast Danny Saturday

Posted by Tim Kelley August 26, 2009 at 8:15 pm

Thursday 9 AM Update.
This morning the NHC forecast for Danny has shifted east. Therefore, the discussion below is a worst case scenerio.. as NHC now forecasts the center passing 100+ miles East of Cape Cod and Maine.
Resume Weds post here:
The National Hurricane Center forecast is for Tropical Storm Danny to intensify to a Category One Hurricane and pass near Cape Cod this Saturday afternoon or evening. If this track verifies, we have the first land falling hurricane in New England since Bob on August 19, 1991. This track means the heaviest wind will be from Cape Cod to Eastern Maine.
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More Heavy Surf For New England

Posted by Tim Kelley August 25, 2009 at 7:58 pm

Tonight we see a large area of the thunderstorms in the southwest Atlantic Ocean.. This tropical wave may soon become Tropical Storm Danny. This storm may have the impact of a strong Nor’Easter for New England Saturday. Here is an early estimate on the possible track of the storm likely to become Danny.

The National Hurricane Center has issued this statement on the massive thunderstorm complex north of Puerto Rico tonight, Tuesday August 25, 2009:
“AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 350 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
FOUND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
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Tropical Update of Ana & Bill. What about Claudette?

Posted by Joe Joyce August 15, 2009 at 7:46 am

Tropical Storm Ana is getting eaten alive by dry air. All that is is left of her is a small circulation center. This low level circulation will have to be monitored as it could re-emerge in the gulf of Mexico later in the week. stay tuned.

Speaking of the gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is tracking tropical depression #4 off the western coast of Florida. This storm should have been upgraded to Tropical Storm Claudette by now.
It is obviously a stronger storm than Ana judging by the enhanced satellite image and will be affecting a population center along the Florida panhandle…unlike Ana which is just a spiralling low out in the ocean.
TD #4 (Claudette) is coming with winds upto 40 mph this morning and will make landfall by tonight. This will have much more of an immediate impact for people than Ana ever will.

Tropical Storm Bill continues to gain steam as TS Ana has cleared the path and is allowing Bill to track over a more favorable area for development with less dry air available. Bill is expected to become an intensifying storm and become a moderately strong hurricane. As our Bermuda high weakens and pulls away, the high will help to steer Bill up the US coast by next weekend. A cold front will be pushing off the US coast by that time, so this should be able to keep Bill off the US coastline and mostly out to sea. That is the way it appears this morning. Obviously, this can change in the coming days, so it is still very important to monitor and be aware of any changes which may develop. Here is the track of the National Hurricane Center. We are not finished with Bill by a long shot. Too much time left on the clock to be so certain. It is still a threat to the east coast, including New England for late next weekend….until the track becomes more certain.

NOAA Expects A Below Normal 2009 Hurricane Season

Posted by Joe Joyce August 8, 2009 at 10:01 am

According to its August Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA now expects a near- to below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, as the calming effects of El Niño continue to develop. But scientists say the season’s quiet start does not guarantee quiet times ahead. The season, which began June 1, is entering its historical peak period of August through October, when most storms form. Read more

Below Average Activity for Atlantic Hurricane Season 2009

Posted by Joe Joyce June 13, 2009 at 9:38 am

Even though we are in a more active multi-decadal cycle for Hurricane development in the Atlantic, experts believe this season will be less active for a variety of reasons. Dr. William Gray from Colorado State University has been forecasting hurricanes for over 30 years. He is the “hurricane guru” when it comes to forecasting the upcoming season. Recently, he has shared his knowledge with an upcoming protege Phillip Klotzbach, who is starting to take a more prominant role in the forecasting department. They have been gradually downgrading their forecast since April. Inside is their latest thinking in their own words! Read more

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